Commercial Court: ‘Bet the farm’ cases
There is no “statistically meaningful bias” by Commercial Court judges towards claimants or defendants, a report has found.
Litigation analytics platform Solomonic and City law firm HFW also said that median claim values at the court had tripled from over £10m in 2024 to nearly £40m in 2025.
Based on an analysis by Solomonic of all published trial decisions of Commercial Court judges over the last 12 years, researchers said there was no judge “whose decision history sits more than three standard deviations from the average” and only one judge who was more than two standard deviations from it.
“In other words, there is no statistically meaningful bias towards claimants or defendants.”
HFW partner Rick Brown said this meant litigants “can be confident in how a case is likely to progress and the eventual outcome”, aiding their strategising.
The report went on: “Of course, each case will differ on the facts and available evidence, and the legal team’s expertise, but it is this judicial consistency that is the bedrock of the Commercial Court.”
The claims threshold for the Commercial Court increased from £5m to £7m (excluding interest and costs) in July last year, below which claims would be transferred to the lower Circuit Commercial Court.
Andrew Williams, partner and global head of disputes at HFW, commented: “This has allowed the Commercial Court to focus on larger disputes, enabling more efficient case management, and reduction of the backlog resulting from cases relating to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“We are seeing more ‘bet-the-company’ disputes in the Commercial Court. When the cases are so important and the value is high, they are less likely to settle.”
Reflecting the “increased size and complexity of the disputes that it hears”, the report – Inside London’s Commercial Court – said the average action in 2025 took 819 days, up 60% from 2024.
However, parties could be confident that judgments handed down by the Commercial Court were “unlikely to be appealed”, with only 5% of claims being challenged in that way.
Of Commercial Court cases that went to trial, claimants over the past 12 years had a 48% chance of full succeeding and 11% of partially succeeding. But two-thirds of cases settled before the defence was filed.
With the odds of success weighted towards them, this would “inevitably encourage confidence” among claimants in terms of their risk appetite for litigation.
Defendants would “need to consider whether to roll the dice and robustly defend their position or attempt to reach an early settlement” and save costs.
Researchers said one reason for higher-than-average success rate for claimants was the court’s issue fee for claimants, which “dissuades parties from bringing frivolous cases”.
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