Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen [1], comments on HMRC’s property transaction data for November 2025:
“November’s data suggests the housing market is starting to thaw, but it’s a hesitant, uneven defrost rather than a clean return to momentum. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions have edged higher month on month and year on year, signalling that some buyers and sellers are stepping back in after months of caution. This isn’t a rebound, it’s a market testing the water.
“Much of this activity reflects decisions made earlier in the year, before confidence was repeatedly knocked by economic and fiscal uncertainty. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but affordability pressures, mortgage pricing and unresolved tax questions continue to act as a drag, keeping many households on the sidelines.
“The commercial picture is notably more constructive. A sharp rise in seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions points to investors restarting deals that were previously parked, particularly where pricing has adjusted and long-term fundamentals still stack up. However, this confidence remains selective and fragile, with business rates and financing costs still front of mind for most investors.
“What comes through clearly in these figures is that policy clarity is now the market’s release valve. Transactions don’t need incentives to move, they need certainty. Until that arrives, activity will continue to come in fits and starts rather than flowing consistently.
“For property lawyers, conveyancers and advisers, this stop-start environment increases the risk of deals falling out of bed. Firms that tighten workflows, improve data accuracy and use AI to strip friction out of due diligence will be far better placed to convert tentative intent into completed transactions as confidence gradually returns.”